Rate of carbon release 10 times faster than previous period of rapid global warming

Based on core samples from 55.9 million years ago, when the earth last experienced a rapid period of global warming, our current rate of carbon release is nearly 10 times as fast. According to geologists, rate matters and this current rapid change may not allow sufficient time for the biological environment to adjust.

The past warming period, known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), experienced a rapid increase in global temperatures over a time span of 20,000 years. Based on models developed at Penn State University, the outcome was a warming of from 9 to 16 degrees Fahrenheit and an acidification event in the oceans.

“Rather than the 20,000 years of the PETM which is long enough for ecological systems to adapt, carbon is now being released into the atmosphere at a rate 10 times faster,” said Lee R. Kump, professor of geosciences at Penn State. “It is possible that this is faster than ecosystems can adapt.”

Mass extinction of marine life may be on the horizon

Dead zones – areas of the seas and oceans that are lacking in oxygen and are suffering from increases of CO2, rising temperatures, nutrient run-off from agriculture and other factors - are rapidly growing in numbers and total area around the globe.

Professor Martin Kennedy from the University of Adelaide and Professor Thomas Wagner from Newcastle University, UK, have been studying these dead zones, or “greenhouse oceans.” They studied core samples from the Late Cretaceous Period (85 million years ago) across a 400,000-year timespan, and found evidence that points to a mass mortality in the oceans at a time when the Earth was going through a greenhouse effect. The mass extinction of marine life in our oceans during that prehistoric time is a warning that the same could happen again due to similarly high levels of greenhouse gases, according to their research.

“This could have a catastrophic, profound impact on the sustainability of life in our oceans, which in turn is likely to impact on the sustainability of life for many land-based species, including humankind,” he added.

What the geological records show, however, is a glimmer of hope attributed to a naturally occurring response to the greenhouse effect. After the phase when the oceans suffer a lack of oxygen, the concentration eventually improves, along with an increase in marine life. Carbon burial of the excess carbon ultimately contributes to CO2 removal from the atmosphere, cooling the planet and the ocean.

“This is nature’s solution to the greenhouse effect and it could offer a possible solution for us,” said Professor Wagner. “If we are able to learn more about this effect and its feedbacks, we may be able to manage it, and reduce the present rate of warming threatening our oceans.”

Their research was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

Effects from climate change in the Arctic taking place significantly faster than previously thought

The Arctic region is the part of globe that is warming up the fastest today compared with all other regions. Measurements of air temperature show that the most recent five-year period has been the warmest since 1880, when monitoring began. Other data, from tree rings among other things, show that the summer temperatures over the last decades have been the highest in 2,000 years. As a consequence, the snow cover in May and June has decreased by close to 20 percent. The winter season has also become almost two weeks shorter – in just a few decades. In addition, the temperature in the permafrost has increased by between half a degree and two degrees.

“The changes we see are dramatic. And they are not coincidental. The trends are unequivocal and deviate from the norm when compared with a longer term perspective,” says Terry Callaghan, a researcher at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and contributor to a new research report detailing the vast changes to the Arctic region, which was presented in Copenhagen last week.

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Vatican science panel cites the urgent need to address glacier melt

A Pontifical Academy of Sciences working group of leading scientists issued a report on May 5, 2011 that emphasizes the need to properly address climate change, specifically pointing to the issue of glacial decline and the related consequences. The panel included some of the world’s leading climate and glacier scientists and was co-chaired by a Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego researcher.

The report, “Fate of Mountain Glaciers in the Anthropocene (pdf),” points out numerous examples of glacial decline around the world and the evidence linking that decline to human-caused changes in climate and air pollution. The authors emphasize the threat to the ways of life of people dependent upon glaciers and snow packs for water supplies. The report suggests immediate action to mitigate the effects of climate change and to adapt to what changes are happening now and are projected to happen in the future. Specifically, it recommends pursuit of three measures: immediate reduction of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions; reduction of concentrations of warming air pollutants such as soot, ozone, methane and hydroflurocarbons by up to 50 percent; and preparation to adapt to climate changes that society will not be able to mitigate.

“The widespread loss of snow and ice in the mountain glaciers is one of the most visible changes attributable to global climate change. The disintegration of many small glaciers in the Himalayas is most disturbing to me since this region serves as the water tower of Asia and since both the greenhouse gases and air pollutants like soot and ozone contribute to the melting,” said Scripps Climate and Atmospheric Scientist Veerabhadran Ramanathan, who has been a member of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences since 2004.

The scientists congregated at the Vatican from April 2-4, 2011 under the invitation of Chancellor Marcelo Sanchez Sorondo of the pontifical academy. The report will be presented to Pope Benedict XVI.

Tsunami debris projected to reach Pacific Ocean’s beaches and North Pacific Garbage Patch

Progress is slowly being made on the clean-up along Japan’s northern coastline, which was struck by a massive tsunami on March 11, 2011. Tons of debris from vehicles and buildings and their contents lay strewn across the land wherever the waves reached inland, making the once-thriving Japanese towns and cities look like an apocalyptic scenario. What few realize, however, is that when the waves returned to the ocean, they carried much of that debris to float off the coast of Japan. The massive, concentrated refuse launched by the devastating tsunami is now magnifying the serious problems of ocean debris.

To help guide clean-up and tracking operations, Nikolai Maximenko and Jan Hafner at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, have created model projections of the probable pathways the debris will follow.

According to their projections, the debris first spreads out eastward from the Japan Coast in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. In a year, the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Marine National Monument will see pieces washing up on its shores; in two years, the remaining Hawaiian islands will see some effects; in three years, the plume will reach the US West Coast, dumping debris on Californian beaches and the beaches of British Columbia, Alaska, and Baja California. The debris will then drift into the famous North Pacific Garbage Patch, where it will wander around and break into smaller and smaller pieces. In five years, Hawaii shores can expect to see another barrage of debris that is stronger and longer-lasting than the first one. Much of the debris leaving the North Pacific Garbage Patch ends up on Hawaii’s reefs and beaches.

Maximenko’s longstanding work has been important in understanding what happens to all ocean debris and how it negatively impacts marine ecosystems, fisheries, and shipping. His work on ocean currents and transports predicted that there are five major regions in the World Ocean where debris collects if it is not washed up on shores or sinks to the ocean bottom, deteriorates, or is ingested by marine organisms. These regions turn out to be “garbage patches.” The North Pacific Garbage Patch has become famous, the North Atlantic Patch was fixed some years ago, and the South Atlantic, South Indian Ocean, and South Pacific patches have just been found, guided by the map of his model that shows where floating marine debris should collect.

Retreating tundra and advancing forests: how the Arctic will look by 2099

Imagine the vast, empty North American tundra giving way to trees and other flora typical of more southerly climates, as polar and sub-polar are replaced by more temperate climates. Imagine similar changes in greater parts of Eastern Europe, northern Asia and Scandinavia, as needle-leaf and broadleaf forests advance northward into areas once unable to sustain them. Imagine part of Greenland’s ice cover, once thought permanent, receding and leaving new tundra in its wake.

Such vast changes are anticipated to occur by the end of this century, as projected by a team of University of Nebraska-Lincoln and South Korean climatologists.

“The expansion of forest may amplify global warming, because the newly forested areas can reduce the surface reflectivity, thereby further warming the Arctic,” said Song Feng, research assistant professor in UNL’s School of Natural Resources and the study’s lead author. “The shrinkage of tundra and expansion of forest may also impact the habitat for wildlife and local residents.”

Worsening drought conditions may help offset any potential benefits of warmer temperatures and reduce the overall vegetation growth in the Arctic regions, Feng said.

If existing trends continue, planet could become ‘unrecognizable’ by 2050

With the global population reaching 7 billion this year, and projected to climb to 9 billion by 2050, rapid depletion of natural resources and food crops would quickly follow and could have a devastating effect on our planet, researchers warned at a major US science conference held on February 20th.

“By 2050 we will not have a planet left that is recognizable” if current trends continue, said Jason Clay of the World Wildlife Fund.

In addition, incomes are expected to continue to rise over the next 40 years, which also adds to the demand for food grains. Since affluence allows easier access to more expensive animal products, more grain is necessary for production, since it requires about seven pounds of grain to produce a pound of meat, and around three to four pounds of grain to produce a pound of cheese or eggs.

To alleviate the projected strain on the planet’s resources, there’s a renewed call for funding of family planning programs. “For 20 years, there’s been very little investment in family planning, but there’s a return of interest now, partly because of the environmental factors like global warming and food prices,” said John Bongaarts of the non-profit Population Council.

Amazon’s grim future causes concern

The Amazon region in South America, also known as Amazonia, is the world’s largest tropical rainforest and called the “lungs of the planet” for its ability to provide 20 percent of the world’s oxygen. It has endured two severe droughts within five years’ time, the first in 2005 and the second in 2010, causing alarm among scientists over its potentially devastating impact on the world’s climate. The carbon impact of last year’s drought, thought to eventually exceed 5 billion tons, is roughly equal to the United States’ total carbon emissions in 2009. The first extreme drought in 2005 was called a “one-in-100-year event,” but then five years later the Amazon was struck with another devastating drought.

Dr. Simon Lewis, from the University of Leeds, and who analyzes the drought’s impact, said: “Having two events of this magnitude in such close succession is extremely unusual, but is unfortunately consistent with those climate models that project a grim future for Amazonia.”

Based on global climate models, droughts such as the ones the Amazon rainforest has recently experienced will likely become more common as an increasing amount of greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere.

Dr Lewis added: “Two unusual and extreme droughts occurring within a decade may largely offset the carbon absorbed by intact Amazon forests during that time. If events like this happen more often, the Amazon rainforest would reach a point where it shifts from being a valuable carbon sink slowing climate change, to a major source of greenhouse gasses that could speed it up.

“Considerable uncertainty remains surrounding the impacts of climate change on the Amazon. This new research adds to a body of evidence suggesting that severe droughts will become more frequent leading to important consequences for Amazonian forests. If greenhouse gas emissions contribute to Amazon droughts that in turn cause forests to release carbon, this feedback loop would be extremely concerning. Put more starkly, current emissions pathways risk playing Russian roulette with the world’s largest rainforest.”

Doomsday prophecies over the centuries and their resurgence

Lorenzo DiTommaso knows about frenzy over the Mayan Calendar. And the end times described in the book of Revelations. And apocalyptic elements in the movie, “The Matrix.”

“The Matrix has all the key elements of the worldview, rebooted on a science-fiction platform,” says DiTommaso, referring to the 1999 blockbuster starring Keanu Reeves. “The main character Neo is the prophesized messiah, who overthrows the system, destroys the oppressors and redeems humanity.”

In fact, he knows so much about doomsday scenarios, he’s authored or edited five books and written over 100 journal articles, book chapters and other short works on apocalypticism, with a new book due soon, called “The Architecture of Apocalypticism,” the first volume of a projected trilogy.

DiTommaso, a professor in Concordia University‘s Department of Religion, studies ancient scrolls, mediaeval manuscripts, modern books and films. Fascinated by the ongoing persistence of apocalyptic beliefs, especially in their secular forms, he examines judgment-day patterns on the internet and in new religions, political rhetoric, contemporary fiction, Japanese anime and graphic novels such as “The”Watchmen.”

His knowledge about modern doomsday scenarios leaves him deeply concerned about the resurgence of  apocalypticism: ”More and more people see the world through the lens of apocalypticism,” he observes. “One reason is that things appear to be so irreparably broken: the environment, the economy, the political system.”

And therein lies the danger, he warns. “At its core, apocalypticism is a simplistic response to complex problems – either good or evil, nothing in between. And it’s an adolescent response, since it places responsibility for solving these problems elsewhere.”

Extremes of winter 2011: glacial conditions in U.S. while the Arctic warms

Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, Ill., February 2, 2011, where approximately a thousand
cars were snarled and drivers were stuck for up to 12 hours

The Arctic is warming much faster than any other global region, and last month the Arctic’s sea ice was at its lowest point on record and temperatures have been way above normal. Meanwhile, the United States has seen numerous massive snowstorms, including one on February 3rd that stretched for thousands of miles across the U.S., snarling air travel and paralyzing much of the country. According to the Weather Channel, here are some notable facts about the latest storms:

• Snowstorm of record in at least 6 cities, including Tulsa, OK (14″) and Moline, IL (18.4″).
• Third heaviest snowstorm of record in Chicago (20.2″).
• Significant icing from MO into IL, IN, OH, PA, NJ, NYC metro.
• Roof collapses from weight of snow in parts of New England and Missouri.
• Two snow events in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex, during Super Bowl week.
• Freezing rain/drizzle as far south as the Rio Grande River, including Houston metro.
• Demand due to cold weather leads to rolling blackouts in parts of Texas.
• Natural gas shortages in parts of the Rio Grande Valley and New Mexico.

Some of the snowy effects can be attributed to La Niña – a naturally-occurring phenomenon characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific – and its merging with Arctic air. What’s unusual is the extensive and repeated southerly path of the Arctic currents. The National Snow and Ice Center attributes these unusual changes to a breakdown of what’s known as the polar vortex:

Cold air is denser than warmer air, so it sits closer to the surface. Around the North Pole, this dense cold air causes a circular wind pattern called the polar vortex , which helps keep cold air trapped near the poles. When sea ice has not formed during autumn and winter, heat from the ocean escapes and warms the atmosphere. This may weaken the polar vortex and allow air to spill out of the Arctic and into mid-latitude regions in some years, bringing potentially cold winter weather to lower latitudes.

This condition is known as a negative Arctic oscillation – warm conditions in the Arctic and cold conditions in northern Europe and the U.S. – and some scientists speculate that frequent episodes are linked to the loss of Arctic sea ice. So, as this cycle continues, Americans and Europeans can expect more chaotic winter weather in years to come.